Long-term forecasting of changes of snowiness and avalanche activity in the world due to global warming
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The technique of definition of depth of the snow cover, number of days with the snow cover, number of days with intensive snowfalls, duration of avalanche prone period by the standard meteorological data (precipitation and temperature) is developed (Glazovskaya, T.G., S.M. Myagkov and V.F.Okolov. 1978). It has allowed to estimate changes of snowiness and avalanche activity using Global Circulating Model GFDL (USA) for a CO2 - doubling (2050 year). The results of accounts are submitted as maps on all continents. The possible increase almost of all characteristics of snowiness and avalanche activity is expected in today's low-snow continental areas, reduction - in fue heavy snow regions. Depth of fue snow cover maximum can increase up to 40-50 cm, decrease - up to 30-40 cm; the number of days with fue snow cover will decrease almost everywhere for 1,5-2 months. The computed changes correspond to maximum changes, because in GFDL Model maximum expected changes of air temperature (3,5 - 4 degrees) are taken into account.