Objective comparison of two to three dimensional avalanche model output and field data using the AIMEC approach

Abstract

In recent years two to three dimensional avalanche simulation tools have gained importance to estimate the hazard. The models are optimized to determine run out distances of avalanches. However, technically dynamic models feature more information such as the spatiotemporal evolution of flow depth and velocity in the avalanche path that can be used to plan protection measures. In this work Doppler radar measurements from the Ryggfonn (N) test site are compared to the output of the two to three dimensional simulation model SamosAT applying the AIMEC (Automated Indicator based Model Evaluation and Comparison) approach. This approach allows an objective comparison and evaluation of the two dimensional output of geophysical flow models. A data transformation allows to compare the maximum velocities in the model to velocities obtained by Doppler radar measurements along the path. Mass balance recordings and mapped avalanche outlines are used to provide input scenarios. It is shown that the AIMEC approach is an ideal tool for the evaluation and comparison of complex model outputs and thus it can be used to improve the calibration procedure of two to three dimensional simulation software.