Wind simulations for use in local avalanche forecasting

Abstract

Quantification of release probabilities in local avalanche forecasting are depending on knowledge of historical weather characteristics as well as detailed knowledge of the wind driven snow distribution on a fine scale. In WP5 we have computed extreme weather statistics for snow and other related parameters for historical and future climates at 1 km2 resolution (2), and prepared gridded regional scale wind data for use in statistics together with historical gridded data (3). Within each 1x1 km grid cell wind is the dominant factor determining snow distribution in the terrain. Simple terrain indexes as well as a complex fluid dynamic (CFD) model have been tested and evaluated with respect to performance in modelling wind fields (4), determine snow distribution (4.7) and potential release areas (4.8). Several scripts and tools have been developed along this study with the aim of establishing an improved toolbox for avalanche forecasting on a local scale.