EU programme CADZIE. New concepts in avalanche hazard mapping

Abstract

The main goal of the CADZIE workpackage 1 is to improve the hazard assessment process by integrating uncertainty and to develop "best-fit" models. This goal can only be achieved if both the stochastic characteristics of the avalanche system as well as the physically describable behaviour are modelled adequately. Although there exist numerous empirical and dynamical models in theory and computational form, till now only few attempts have been carried out to combine these different concepts. The objective of this report is not to develop a new constitutive law for avalanche dynamics or to derive a new statistical function for run-out estimation, but rather to integrate random processes, uncertainty, and also vague knowledge in the system description.