An avalanche forecasting program based on a modified nearest neighbour method.

Abstract

As a part of an avalanche forecasting system, a modified nearest neighbour program is described. The system is intended to be used with forecast values for most ofthe parameters. The modifications consist of 1) the use of a parameter set that better reflects the course of the weather situation, 2) the setting of initial selection criteria for certain parameters 3) a method for normalizing the distances and 4) a weighting of the avalanche probability based on the avalanche activity and the similarity of the weather situations.