Estimating Avalanche Triggering Probability using meteorological and local terrain parameters through a fuzzy inference approach

Abstract

The aim of the present study is the quantitative estimation of snow avalanche triggering probability (ATP) for daily local forecasting purposes based on meteorological and local terrain factors. At present, ATP is indirectly assessed by snow avalanche forecasters (experts) while they conclude upon snowpack stability at the moment and upon its change during the forecasting period based on their personal judgement, knowledge and experience. In the forecasters' decision making, a considerable role is played by the recent meteorological history of the area the forecast is produced for, as well as by forecasted weather development. In this study, an approach based on fuzzy inference is adopted to estimate ATP through the quantitative parameterization of expert judgement.